Small market teams in the NBA always seem to struggle attracting free agents. Lacking the greater marketing opportunities that the big cities enjoy, these teams are less likely to be able to afford to pay luxury taxes, and may have less appeal to free agents considering their career beyond basketball.

This leads to a self compounding problem–if they can’t get star players, they don’t win, leading to even less attraction to sign in such a place.

It raises the question of what, exactly, would we define as a small market? And are those teams, on average, less successful than large market teams?

Looking at metropolitan area populations of NBA cities, there are 4 clear distinctions on market size. Starting with the list of metropolitan areas in the US, and inserting Toronto at the #6 spot, the first thing you notice is that the NBA has all of the big markets well covered.

Of the 15 biggest markets on the list, 14 have NBA teams. The lone exception is Riverside/San Berdnardino counties, and it’s a safe bet there is a heavy Lakers fan base there.

Big Markets

If a player really wants to sell sneakers or make music videos, it’s clear that there are 2 markets that stand head and shoulders above the rest:

New York – metro area population: 19 million
Los Angeles – 14 mil (not counting Riverside)

Between their sheer size, their links to the entertainment industries, and worldwide recognition, there is really no comparison between these two, and any other NBA city. It’s not surprising that these are the only two cities with two teams each.

While the Lakers are the only team among those 4 with any championships in the last 40 years, both New York teams have made the finals twice, and both have been reasonably successful at attracting free agents.

And despite the drama of the Clippers, and even though they did not make Forbes list of the 10 most valuable NBA teams in 2014, recent speculation indicates they are, most likely, one of the few billion dollar franchises in the league.

Large-Mid Market

Beyond the bright lights, there are 12 cities that we might call large-mid markets, with a population in the range of 4 to 9 million.

Chicago – 9.5
Dallas – 6.8
Houston – 6.3
Toronto – 6.1
Philadelphia – 6.0
Washington – 5.9
Miami – 5.8
Atlanta – 5.5
Boston – 4.7
SF/Oakland – 4.5
Phoenix – 4.4
Detroit – 4.3

Half of these teams have championships in the last 20 years, and 4 more have won them at some point in the past, although in the Hawks case it was back in St. Louis. Only the Suns and Raptors are lacking titles in this group.

Some may see the Celtics and Bulls as having comparable draw to LA and NY for a basketball player, just due to their history. But in terms of pure marketability, they both belong in this second group.

That covers 16 teams–ironically, the same number of teams that make the playoffs. However, only 11 of this years playoff teams came from these larger markets.

Small-Mid Market

Measured purely by size, Minneapolis could be the previous group. But it in terms of market appeal, it compares to the group of 9 we would call small-mid market, with populations in the 2 to 3 million range:

Minneapolis – 3.5
Denver – 2.7
Charlotte – 2.3
Portland – 2.3
San Antonio – 2.3
Orlando – 2.3
Sacramento – 2.3
Cleveland – 2.0
Indianapolis – 2.0

The Spurs are the only team among these cities with a multiple championship history. Portland’s only title came in 1977, and the Kings claim the Rochester Royals of 1951 in their history. Only 3 of these teams made the playoffs this year. None of them have made any recent news for a free agent signing.

Small Market

That leaves 5 teams in the pure small market category:

Milwaukee – 1.6
Memphis – 1.3
Oklahoma City – 1.3
New Orleans – 1.2
Salt Lake City – 1.1

The limited success seen by the teams in these cities–along with San Antonio’s disproportionate success in the previous group–has clearly been a direct result of the draft.

The only trophy in this group, for the Bucks, followed drafting Lew Alcindor. the Jazz made the best 13 and 16 pick combo in history in consecutive years to build their playoff history. And the Thunder are currently riding their #2 pick into the playoffs.

And, of course, the best thing that ever happened to the Spurs was losing their best player for a year, leading to the #1 pick.

Perhaps the billionaires from smaller markets should think twice about trying to bring an NBA franchise to their home town.

Seattle, the next most likely city to get an NBA team, falls between Detroit and Minneapolis in metro population. Its appeal as a destination for free agents may not be strong enough to get it in that second group, and will more likely fall into the small-mid market group.

Unless they buy a team that already has stars (Clippers, anyone?), they will likely have to count on good draft choices to build a winning team.

They better hire good scouts.